Calculations of the Armenian Death Toll during the Main Phase of the Armenian Genocide (1915–1916): Sources, Data, and Methods, 1915–1923

Abstract

Data on the number of victims of the Armenian Genocide began to emerge as early as late 1915 to early 1916, while the extermination campaign against the Armenians was still underway. At the time, estimates of victim numbers served both practical political and humanitarian purposes—raising international awareness of the Ottoman government’s crimes by illustrating the scale of the catastrophe, seeking to halt the persecution of Armenians, and organizing relief efforts to support the survivors.

The question of the number of Armenian victims remained a subject of discussion immediately after World War I, particularly in the context of diplomatic negotiations surrounding the Armenian Question. During this period, it gained importance primarily in relation to efforts to establish reparations for the human and material losses suffered by the Armenian people.

According to calculations made between 1915 and 1923, the most widely accepted estimate for the number of Armenians who perished during the main phase of the genocide (1915–1916) is approximately one million. Based on sources containing more detailed estimates—such as those by Arnold Toynbee, Johannes Lepsius, and others derived from them—of this total, around 600,000 died in 1915 as a result of deportations and massacres, and approximately 400,000 perished in 1916 in concentration camps in Syria and Mesopotamia due to starvation, disease, and subsequent actions following the dissolution of the camps.